Thunderbolts* or The New Avengers? When Marketing Shapes Reality

Someone once told me that perception is reality. It doesn’t matter what your intent is — if someone interprets your actions as ill-willed or misleading, that becomes their truth.

That’s where I think we are with Marvel’s sudden rebranding of Thunderbolts* to The New Avengers just days after the film’s release. For some, it’s a bait-and-switch. For me, it’s a calculated marketing tactic designed to stretch positive buzz and pull in audiences who skipped opening weekend.

Context: Phase Five’s Box Office Roller Coaster

To understand why Marvel would lean into this stunt, you have to consider the franchise’s recent track record. The MCU’s Phase Five has been a mixed bag at best.:

• Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania dropped 69.88% in its second weekend.
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 held much better, with only a 47.63% drop.
• The Marvels holds the dubious record of the MCU’s worst drop ever — 78%.
• Deadpool & Wolverine turned things around, dropping just 54% and becoming Phase Five’s only billion-dollar film.
• Captain America: Brave New World saw a 68% drop and currently sits as Phase Five’s second-lowest grosser.

On average, a Marvel film earns 16.59% of its total box office in its opening weekend. With the second weekend added in, that jumps to 23.5%. So those first two weekends matter a lot.

The Asterisk That Said It All

Let’s talk spoilers — or what counts as one. According to IMDb:

“A spoiler is usually defined as a remark or piece of information which reveals important plot elements (for example the ending or a major plot twist), thus ‘spoiling’ a surprise and robbing the viewer of the suspense and enjoyment of the film.”

After seeing Thunderbolts*, I didn’t find the reveal — that this team is being positioned as “the new Avengers” — surprising. Maybe it’s because I read comics. Maybe it’s the title itself. That dangling asterisk always felt like a placeholder, a hint that things weren’t what they seemed.

And honestly, is the name of the team the twist? I’d argue it’s not. The movie’s arc isn’t built around what the group is called — it’s about who they are and why they exist. Still, for spoiler-sensitive fans, any detail can feel like too much. And in a fandom where perception is everything, Marvel should know that even marketing choices can stir controversy.

It’s entirely possible Marvel anticipated the controversy — even counted on it — to keep the film in public conversation. The rebrand gives audiences a reason to stay curious, to talk, and maybe even to buy a ticket just to see what’s really going on with this ragtag crew of former side characters turned anti-heroes.

Will the Rebrand Work?

Let’s run the numbers.

Using Box Office Mojo data, the average second-weekend drop for MCU films is 55.56%, with a median of 58.35%. Only two MCU films — Black Panther and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings — actually gained in their second weekends. Every other entry has dropped by at least 47%.

Thunderbolts* opened with $74.3 million domestically, placing it 33rd among MCU releases. A standard 55% drop would put its second weekend at around $33.4 million. If that weekend represents about 23.5% of the film’s final take, we’re looking at a total domestic gross of roughly $430.9 million.

That would place it in the MCU’s bottom 10, alongside films like Shang-Chi and Thor (2011). Not a disaster — but not a triumph either.

So, will the rebrand to The New Avengers boost it above projections? Maybe. If it can slow the second-weekend decline or draw in new viewers through sheer curiosity, it might crawl its way to a more respectable finish.

Final Thoughts

Whether you view it as a savvy pivot or a spoiler in disguise, Marvel’s decision to reframe Thunderbolts* as The New Avengers underscores a larger trend: in today’s cinematic universe, marketing isn’t just part of the story — it is the story.